June 12, 2017

6-12-2017 Once Solid Democratic Districts, aren’t so safe…

Morning Consult

Fellow House Democrats are likely to heed that advice. Among the 23 House districts in which Clinton underperformed Obama by double digits, 11 are represented by Democratic lawmakers, mostly in the Midwest. That continued a gradual decline for the party since Obama’s first election in 2008. Of those, five districts held a worse decline for Democrats than Michigan’s 5th District.

  • Minnesota’s 1st District: Trump won Rep. Tim Walz’s district by 15 points in an election where Clinton performed 11.2 points worse than Obama in 2012. Obama, who won the South Minnesota district with 51 percent of the vote in 2008, underperformed himself four years later, as Republicans upped their share of the vote.
  • Ohio’s 13th District: In Rep. Tim Ryan’s district, Clinton beat Trump by 6.5 points. That is 20 points less than Obama’s victories in 2012 and 2008, which were close to 62 percent to 35 percent both years. Ryan has never had a close election in the Youngstown-area district since he was elected in 2002, beating his 2016 rival, 68.5 percent to 31.5 percent.
  • Pennsylvania’s 17th District: Trump beat Clinton, 53 percent to 43 percent, in Rep. Matt Cartwright’s Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Allentown-based district. Her share of the vote was 12 points lower than Obama’s in 2008, while the share for Trump rose 10 points. Since 2012, Cartwright has seen a decline in his share of the general election vote – winning with 60 percent of the vote in his first election, but ending Election Night last year with 54 percent.
  • Minnesota’s 8th District: Obama won this Canadian border-hugging district, represented by Rep. Rick Nolan, by 5.5 points in 2012 and 8.6 points in 2008. But in 2016, the vote shifted dramatically, and Trump won by 16 points, with 54 percent of the vote.
  • Minnesota’s 7th District: Next door to the west Rep. Collin Peterson represents a district Obama never won, and has gotten worse for the party since Sen. John McCain’s victory there by 3 points in 2008. In 2016, Trump won by 31 points, and Clinton underperformed Obama by 13 percent.

All six districts were included on a list of those already being targeted by House Republicans ahead of the 2018 elections.

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